If the European debt crisis gets worse, it could threaten U.S. business travel, according to research just released by the Global Business Travel Association Foundation (GBTA). Indeed, a severe crisis could cause a 9 percent decline in trips and a 16 percent drop in spending, representing a total of $88 billion, according to GBTA’s U.S. Business Travel Outlook.

Since business travel is critical to economic growth, this could hurt the U.S. recovery, according to the GBTA. International outbound travel, which has played an outsized part in the revival of business travel since the recession, would be crushed by further deterioration in the Eurozone, GBTA said.

As part of its report, the GBTA looked at three possible scenarios. First, if the situation stays the same,  a mini-recession in Europe, which is already expected, would be short lived and would result in continued growth in U.S. business travel spending at $263.5 billion and $277.3 billion in 2012 and 2013, respectively. The number of trips taken is also projected to grow slightly at 443.1 million and 443.6 million trips in 2012 and 2013, respectively, in the baseline situation.

Second, a prolonged recession in Europe would result in business travel growth flattening with a reduction in spend of almost $40 billion (down 7 percent) and roughly 42 million trips (down 5 percent) forecast between 2012 and 2013. Third, widespread  debt and banking failures across the Eurozone and possible dissolution of the European Union would push spending back to levels not seen since the Great Recession with a reduction of business travel spending of nearly $88 billion (down 16 percent) and trip volume down to 76 million trips (down 9 percent) forecast between 2012 and 2013.

“This data serves as a wakeup call to the entire industry as we watch European policy makers work to contain the debt crisis,” said Michael McCormick, executive director and COO, GBTA. “While these problems are happening abroad, they most certainly can have an effect at home.”