Experts Say Air Fares Unlikely to Mirror Dropping Oil Prices

Patrick Clarke
by Patrick Clarke
Last updated: 7:00 PM ET, Wed January 21, 2015

Despite recent efforts made by politicians and various consumer groups to influence airlines to cut fares in response to plummeting oil prices, carriers remain unlikely to provide service at a cheaper cost.

According to Reuters, the global airline industry is projected to report a profit increase of close to $5 billion in 2015, bringing total profits this year to an estimated $25 billion.

Meanwhile, global airlines body IATA expects air fares will fall only about 5.1 percent this year, compared to drops of 3 percent in 2014 and 6.2 percent in 2013.

"Ticket prices are market-driven, not cost-driven," said former Air Malta chief executive Peter Davies at the recent Airline Economics conference in Dublin.

Executives and analysts at the conference echoed similar sentiments, pointing out that unless there is a notable change in demand, high prices are likely to stick around.

Since June 2014, crude oil prices have dropped 60 percent, but air travelers have yet to see the drop reflected in the cost of flying. It's that reality that has so many consumer groups up in arms.

Travelers United chairman Charlie Leocha details the frustration from a traveler's perspective, stating that "in the United States, we consumers are seeing dramatically diving gas prices at our gas pumps and at the same time, facing less room and more fees, stubborn fuel surcharges and air fares."

As countless experts have pointed out since the debate began to heat up last year, the potential for a reduction in airfare will ultimately be determined by demand. And if demand remains high, like it is now, carriers have no incentive to reduce prices, regardless of what they're paying for fuel.


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Patrick Clarke

Patrick Clarke

Senior Editor

A Maryland native and wanderer who has lived across the U.S. from North Carolina to SoCal, Patrick Clarke graduated from Towson University with a B.S. in journalism. He previously worked for Bleacher

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