by Brian Major
Last updated: 2:30 PM ET, Fri February 10, 2017
Leisure travel to the Caribbean performed strongly in 2016 and is poised for continued positive growth in 2017, said leaders of the region's largest tourism and hospitality groups this week.
Caribbean destinations recorded 29.3 million land-based, overnight visitors in 2016, the region's seventh-consecutive year of growth and its highest-ever total said Hugh Riley, secretary general of the Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO), in a press briefing Thursday.
Caribbean arrivals increased 4.2 percent year-over-year compared with 2015 and the region's 2016 visitor growth exceeded the 3.9 percent global tourism growth for 2016 reported by the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), said Riley.
Additionally, Caribbean cruise passenger arrivals grew an estimated 1.3 percent, totaling approximately 26.3 million in 2016. The Caribbean remains the cruise industry's number one area of vessel deployment.
Riley and other CTO officials attributed the region's overall growth to the strength of its primary visitor source market. "The performance in 2016 was primarily supported by sustained economic growth in the U.S.," said Ryan Skeete, CTO's director of research.
Riley added that the U.S. continues to be the Caribbean's primary market for overnight, "long-stay" visitors, accounting for one-half of all land-based arrivals. However, he noted American travelers represent the Caribbean's slowest-growing market.
Europe rising
The region's strongest growth was generated by European travelers, as year-over-year arrivals from UK and Europe increased 11 percent in 2016 to 5.6 million. The Caribbean's European visitor contingent grew despite terrorist attacks in European countries, Riley said, along with the UK's Brexit referendum and currency woes and mixed economic fortunes in several European nations.
Conversely Canada, a strong Caribbean visitor source market in past years, struggled noticeably in 2016, recording a 3.5 percent arrivals downturn compared with 2015. In all, seven Caribbean destinations recorded double-digit visitor increases in 2016: Belize, the Turks & Caicos Islands, Bermuda, Antigua & Barbuda, Barbados, Grenada and Montserrat. Meanwhile, declines were recorded in six destinations, Riley said.
Riley said CTO's forecast calls for tourist arrivals to the region will grow at a slower rate in the months ahead, totaling between 2.5 and 3.5 percent for all of 2017. "We also project increases of between 1.5 per cent and 2.5 per cent in cruise passenger arrivals. So, all things being equal, we're expecting growth in 2017, but it will not be robust."
Some struggles
Indeed, despite the largely positive results for 2016 Riley noted, "we had our shortfalls" as the Caribbean did not break the 30 million arrivals barrier CTO officials had earlier forecast. Also while higher overall, island-to-island visitor growth was uneven, ranging from flat to as high as 19 percent. About one-fifth of the 29 CTO countries reported declines, Riley said.
Also, "Our hotel partners also experienced negative results when compared to 2015," Riley said. Data from research firm STR found "all hotel indicators were down in 2016," said Riley, with the exception of the number of available rooms, which grew by just over one percent.
Caribbean hotel declines in average daily rate, revenue per available room and occupancy "[reflect] the rise of the sharing economy and additional hotel room stock," Riley said. Nevertheless, he added the 2016 hotel revenue indicators exceed performances recorded between 2012 and 2014.
Supply side results encouraging
Meanwhile, the Caribbean Hotel & Tourism Association (CHTA)'s second-annual Industry Performance and Outlook Study, released last week, found more than four out of five (81 percent) of the group's member hoteliers have "an encouraging outlook" for tourism in 2017 said Frank Comito, the group's director general and CEO.
The survey, administered during the first two weeks 2017, polled a representative sampling of hotels throughout the Caribbean of varying sizes and categories, gauging expectations for variables including employment levels, revenue, profits, capital spending, room occupancy, and rates.
Comito said hoteliers reported mixed revenue performance in 2016 as 47 percent reported increases and "a similar percentage" reported declines. He noted the mixed performance in 2016 followed an exceptional year in 2015.
"Hoteliers entered 2016 with high-performance expectations but these were tempered as a combination of unanticipated factors surfaced during the year," Comito said, including "a warmer than usual winter in the region's primary feeder markets, Canadian and UK exchange rates, Brexit, the threat of Zika, and political and economic certainty in parts of the world."
Nevertheless, Comito said Caribbean hoteliers' profitability improved year-over-year in 2016, with most hotels (78 percent) reporting a net profit. Additionally, more than 67 percent anticipate an increase in revenue in 2017 while 56 percent expect a slight improvement in profits.
Although room occupancy decreased for just more than half (51 percent) of the reporting hotels, 29 percent reported increased occupancy. More hoteliers are optimistic for 2017 said Comito, with two-thirds expecting an increase in occupancy.
Additionally, while 45 percent of hotel reduced their ADR, as many as 42 percent increased ADR. In 2017 approximately 55 percent of hoteliers expect to increase ADR while only 15 percent expect downward pressure on rates, Comito said.
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