PHOTO: Thai Anti-government protesters shouted loud to deport prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra in front of Amarin Plaza Department Store near by Ratchaprasong Intersection on November 7, 2013, Bangkok, Thailand. (Courtesy of www.thinkstock.com)
Just as Bangkok was beginning to settle back into normalcy, Thailand's top court ruled that the country's prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra must step down with several of her cabinet ministers. The court cites what it calls the prime minister's "illegal transfer" of a government minister from his post three years ago so that she could install a member of her family. The news shot through the Thai political world, reinforcing the divide that had begun to quiet down after months of demonstrations that paralyzed Bangkok and caused the deaths of more than 20 people.
Those demonstrations basically subsided after State of Emergency measures were imposed in January. The demonstrators were formed of anti-government factions known as Yellow Shirts. The court ruling may bring the pro-government faction known as Red Shirts back into the streets for the first time since 2010. New elections are scheduled for July.
The divide between the Red and Yellow Shirt factions has its roots in a division between rural (Red) and urban (Yellow) Thais. The spark that exposed these divisions came from the ouster and subsequent exile of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is the brother of Yingluck Shinawatra, the current Prime Minister. The fact that the court's ruling is predicated on a charge of nepotism and that charge is being prosecuted by demanding this prime minister step down as Thaksin did may add even more rancor to the bitter dispute.
In December, Yingluck dissolved parliament and called for elections that were held but dismissed because Yellow Shirt demonstrators had blocked the way to about a fifth of the country's polls, thus the same Constitutional Court that called for her ouster annulled the February vote which almost every observer agrees would have given her a mandate.
Things were beginning to improve for Bangkok tourism according to speakers at the Thailand Tourism Forum in April organized by the American Chamber of Thailand and C9 Hotel Works. Speakers asserted that 'Brand Thailand' was shaken to its roots by the Bangkok Shutdown, with hotel occupancies down more than a third for Q1, 2014. More than 400 travel professionals listened as speakers such as Jesper Palmqvist, the area director-Asia Pacific of STR Global, predicted that Thailand could once again count on "its renowned resilience in shaking off the post-shutdown hangover."
"Thailand's resilience is legendary," Palmqvist said. "The big question is how many times it can be relied upon after the latest self-inflicted crisis before Thailand finally loses its bounce."
The forum's theme asked the same pithy question that has been asked repeatedly since the demonstrations started, "What's Next for Thailand's Tourism Industry?" According to Palmqvist, Bangkok's occupancy rates plummeting more than 30 percent in the first quarter of 2014 compared to the same period last year. International tourist arrivals to Thailand declined by 4.1 percent in February (year-on-year) and 9.39 percent in March, the latest figures show. In the same period Thailand's neighbors all experienced gains of around 2 to 5 percent in occupancy. Palmqvist believes those gains were partially driven by visitors seeking alternatives to Thailand.
STR Global's data shows Bangkok hotel occupancies in January declined 26 percent in year-on-year performance. This worsened to 37 percent in February as the protests escalated, choking key city intersections and prompting many travel warnings.
Significantly, Thailand's other resort destinations and gateway cities experienced a drop of just 2 percent for the first two months of the year. "Resort markets like Phuket and Samui remained largely unaffected by the political upheavals, in direct contrast to Bangkok," said JJL Senior Vice President, Investment Sales Asia, Nihat Ercan. He estimated Bangkok's occupancy drop at a more precipitous 35 percent.
Dusit International COO David Shackleton said that his group's occupancy had come back considerably and "barring more protests, the rate would continue to climb sharply." It's hard to imagine that the court's decision won't lead to more protests. According to Shackleton, the last round of protests had forced Dusit to close certain restaurants and reassign staff.
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