by James Ruggia
Last updated: 3:57 PM ET, Mon November 10, 2014
PHOTO: Greece arrivals have grown an astounding 16 percent in 2014. (courtesy Greece National Tourism Office Facebook)
Global travel is growing so solidly that the analysts who report on the market seem to disbelieve their own findings.
The 22nd World Travel Monitor Forum held last week in Pisa reported what it calls "robust growth on a global scale." This year projects to end with a 4.5 percent growth in global travel and the prospects appear to be positively sunny for next year, despite a spate of global crises that in the old days would have depressed travel numbers significantly. Geopolitical tensions, pandemics, regional upheavals, natural disasters, Hell and high water can't stop the flow. IPK Rolf Freitag, president of the travel analysis firm IPK International (www.ipkinternational.com) speaking last Tuesday in Pisa said, "The travel industry has remained crisis-proof even in these recent turbulent times." IPK projects that travel will grow by another 4 to 5 percent in 2015.
The European Travel Commission (ETC) concurs. It titled its pronouncement, "European Tourism Fares Well In Turbulent Times." The ETC reports, and there's that word again, "a robust 4 percent over the first three quarters of 2014." The ETC attributes it to stronger ties with established markets and an acceleration of arrivals from "fast emerging markets;" as they say in baseball, a combination of wily veterans and excited rookies.
"Targeting a mix of markets with a high growth potential, such as the BRIC markets, and with a high volume potential, is an optimal mix to strengthen flows of visitors to Europe," said Eduardo Santander, the ETC's executive director. "This strategy also proved effective in making the tourism sector less vulnerable to market downswings." The ETC expects European tourism to grow between 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent in 2015.
Between 2010 and 2014, a total of 980 million trips, meant a growth of 28 percent. During the same period the average annual growth figure for trips abroad was 45 million. This year mean spending per trip was $1,750; an increase of 2 percent. On trips abroad the average number of overnights was eight. As regards long-haul trips, since 2010 European destinations have reported especially high growth (up 28 percent). Asia registered an increase of 22 percent. Paris received 18.8 million arrivals this year, making it the world's most popular city. It was followed by New York and London. Munich and Berlin were ranked seventh and eighth respectively on the list of the most popular metropolitan tourism regions.
Though the ETC reports growth in virtually every reporting destination, both in terms of domestic travel and in foreign travel, the growth in large destinations in Southern and Northern Europe was especially surprising with strong double-digit growth reported by a large number of smaller destinations. Data point to a rebound of short breaks on top of main holidays, backed by increased consumer spending power in key source markets.
Among the top 10 destinations for international tourist arrivals, Spain, the second most visited destination, grew by 9 percent through August. That's an amazing number as it grows off of an exceptionally large base of some 61 million visitors in 2013. Turkey, Europe's fourth largest inbound destination grew 7 percent, and that's with an enormous amount of noise coming out of the Middle East.
Greece, number 10, grew by a staggering 16 percent driven by business travel and a sense in the market, as with Spain, that bargains could be found in a recovering economy. The biggest drivers were European travelers especially from Germany and the U.K. The ETC credits the strong performance by U.S. travelers to "improved labor market conditions and cheaper air fares outside of peak seasons."
It wasn't all rosy as Latin America "softened throughout the year," China "staggered," though India and the UAE showed double digit growth. Altogether, the ETC sees the solid performance as a way to offset Russian outbound, which is falling precipitously with its economy. Though travelers may be willing to travel during natural, political and medical crises, bad economic news still slows travel.
According to IPK cites continued growth in smartphone use to book lodgings and provide information. Online bookings had a share of 66 percent and a growth rate of 7 percent. Furthermore, figures covering the last five years show a real bookings increase (35 percent) in private accommodation, such as apartments and holiday rentals. Over the same five years city breaks are up 58 percent as are adventure trips (32 percent). Beach holidays grew by 18 percent.
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