There's good news for travel this year if Vacation.com's latest survey of its members is any indication. The 5,500-agency member consortium, which now calls itself a "business solutions provider" for its members, unveiled its top domestic and international travel trends for 2015 at a press conference in New York City.
Vacation.com President John Lovell said he was bullish about the prospects for growth in leisure travel for 2015, largely due to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, lower energy costs that have placed more discretionary income into the hands of U.S. consumers, and record advance bookings that began in the fourth quarter of 2014 and have show no signs of decreasing.
"After concluding with a solid 2014, we remain extremely bullish on the state of the leisure travel industry for 2015," Lovell said.
Lovell said Vacation.com was set up for an excellent 2015 by a great "turn" in bookings in the fourth quarter of last year. "The fourth quarter was one of the strongest in years in all categories of cruise, escorted tours, and fun and sun vacations." Lovell said, adding that cruise Wave Season had opened earlier than it traditionally has producing robust bookings, except for a slight blip in European sailings.
According to Lovell, the Caribbean remains a cruise market that needs to be closely monitored because of yield issues, though newer ships are driving premium yield. Meanwhile, Hawaii and other exotic cruise markets had a strong 2014 and are poised for an equally strong 2015, so much so that scarcity of inventory may become an issue.
Lovell said deep-water contemporary cruises had a very strong "turn" in the fourth quarter last year, achieving bookings in the high 60 percent range for all of 2015, well above expectations. Yields are holding with some experiencing modest increases and the booking window has expanded, which Lovell called a very positive sign for the segment.
Elsewhere, Lovell said Vacation.com is anticipating strong double digit growth in premium cruise bookings year over year along with modest yield improvement. Luxury cruises are positioned well for strong year-over-year growth and are seeing strong gains in multi-generational travel, perhaps driven in part by recent announcements about new ships in the luxury fleet.
According to Lovell, Vacation.com is seeing no slowdown in escorted tour bookings, with Europe performing very well, with double-digit growth expected this year. There also was little to no impact from the recent terrorist attacks in Paris.
River cruise bookings also remain strong, with high demand and positive yield increases. Lovell said the rapid capacity increases seen in the last few years on the rivers of Europe appear to have been absorbed by consumers.
As for wholesale vacations (or "fun and sun") and more exotic tour programs, Lovell said Vacation.com is seeing strong demand in the U.S., Caribbean, Hawaii and Eastern Mexico, with the pace in 2015 well ahead of 2014. In addition, Lovell said Vacation.com is seeing a steady uptick in safari business after a very disappointing third and fourth quarters last year, due largely to confusion about where the Ebola virus was breaking out in Africa.
In a recent survey of Vacation.com's travel agency membership, 82 percent of members said their 2015 bookings are on par or greater than the same time last year, compared to a percentage in the mid-seventies last year. In addition, 96 percent said they expect their clients will spend the same or more on travel in 2015 as compared to last year. Eight-four percent of Vacation.com's membership also said they had a personal optimistic outlook about their business for 2015.
Vacation.com's survey also found the top international destinations being booked by agency members are, in order: Caribbean cruises, Mediterranean cruises, Cancun, European river cruises, and Rome. The top domestic destinations being booked are, in order, Alaska cruises, Orlando, Las Vegas, New York City and Honolulu.
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