According to the monthly report by Donald N. Martin & Company on behalf of the European Travel Commission, overall trans-Atlantic traffic continued to decline in November for the 13th consecutive month, with leading carriers reporting an average decline of 3.2 percent. Capacity was down an average 6.1 percent, with the average load factor at 79.6. Delta slashed capacity by 21.6 percent, but remained the leader in U.S.-Europe ASMs. Continental reduced capacity by 11.3 percent. Overall U.S. domestic capacity is down 6.9 percent for the year, the largest percent reduction since a 12 percent cut in 1942, according to the Air Transport Association. But domestic yields continued to fall through October, down 12.5 percent for the month and down 13.3 percent for the year. Capacity on the Atlantic is down a similar 6.3 percent through October. But trans-Atlantic yields also continued to drag through October, down 14.4 percent on U.S. carriers for the month and down 19.9 percent for the year.
Much of the loss of yield has been attributed to the slump in premium-class traffic. But there are signs of resurgence, said executives from British Airways and Delta, the latter reporting that premium tickets were up in November, albeit at lower prices. After two months of unexpected growth, U.S. travel to Europe declined in September by 1.4 percent, according to the latest figures from the U.S. Department of Commerce. The peak season (May to September) still ended up surprisingly strong, with 6.39 million U.S. citizen visits, or only 1.3 percent fewer than the peak season of 2008. Thanks to the better-than-expected peak season for U.S. travel to Europe and to indications of relatively small declines through December, the report is revising its previous projection for the 2009 total upward to 12 million visits (plus or minus 50,000), for a decline of no more than 4.5 percent from the 2008 total.
The number of Americans with passports continued to rise -- 11.9 million first-time and renewal passports were issued in FY 2009 (which ended Sept. 30), according to the State Department. That increased the total passport-holding population in the U.S. to 94.5 million, a record 33 percent of the U.S.-citizen population in the country. Since 2003, the number of passport-holding Americans has surged by more than 35 million, or 60 percent, to 94.5 million (not counting passport cards). The percentage of the citizen population in the 50 states holding passports rose from an estimated 22 percent in 2003 to 33 percent today. The surge peaked in 2007 with 18.4 million original and renewal passports issued.
The boost was provided by post-9/11 concerns over documentation, which led to the requirement that Americans returning from Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean show passports (or, in the case of land crossings, less-expensive U.S. passport cards or enhanced state driver's licenses). While this great expansion of passport holders has not yet translated into similar increases for U.S. travel to Europe, it makes a quick recovery in traffic that much more possible in the near future. This year, California led the states with 1.9 million new passports and passport cards, or 14 percent; Texas was second at 9 percent. The nine states of the Northeast corridor (plus the District of Columbia) accounted for 25 percent.
The report also makes note of the fact that consumer confidence is on the rise. The Conference Board index rose slightly from a revised 48.7 in October to 49.5 in late November. The University of Michigan/Reuters index jumped to 73.4 this month from a revised 67.4 in early November. The 39-nation European Travel Commission is planning its next Trans-Atlantic Conference for Feb. 25, on the eve of The New York Times Travel Show. It will be held at TheTimesCenter on 41st Street, in New York City. For more information, visit www.DNMartinco.com.
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