by Mia Taylor
Last updated: 5:30 PM ET, Wed September 6, 2017
A new travel trends index paints a pessimistic view of the U.S. travel economy in the wake of President Donald Trump's election and his various immigration bans.
The index, known as the TTI, showed that inbound international travel volume declined during the first quarter of this year, according to the U.S. Travel Association.
Issued Tuesday, the new index updates information from earlier this year showed international inbound travel numbers growing.
Using newly available data, the index reveals inbound international travel numbers actually contracted in four of the seven months for which data is so far available. The biggest declines took place in February-when visitation dropped 6.8 percent and during March-when it dropped even further (8.2 percent).
Though there was a slight increase in April, economists attribute that to the typically travel-heavy Easter holiday.
U.S. Travel Association Senior Vice President for Research David Huether said the downward revisions are in line with the international travel drop-off that the TTI has been predicting all year long.
"We kept projecting drops in international visitation, and they kept not materializing," Huether said in a statement. "However, we recently were able to access new data inputs for the TTI to give us an even more comprehensive picture, and sure enough, the international travel segment has been far weaker than what was initially shown."
Earlier this year, Dow and others warned that President Donald Trump's anti-immigrant rhetoric and his ban on travel from a handful of mostly Muslim countries could send an anti-tourism message, according to CBS Money Watch.
The TTI is prepared for the U.S. Travel Association by the research firm Oxford Economics. Sources for the index include STR, TNS, Statistics Canada, the U.S. government's I-94 program and Advanced Passenger Information System, OAG, the International Air Transport Association Billing Settlement Plan, Sabre and major U.S. airlines' investor relations reports.
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Travel supports one in nine American jobs, according to the association. What's more, inbound international travel is the number two overall U.S. export. Given those numbers, the head of U.S. Travel said the American economy can ill afford for this troubling trend to continue.
"The international travel market is ultra-competitive, and the U.S. is falling behind," U.S. Travel Association President and CEO Roger Dow said in a statement. "Fortunately, there are levers the Trump administration can pull to help right the ship-continue the Brand USA tourism marketing organization, and protect policies that enable international travel to the U.S., such as Open Skies aviation agreements and the Visa Waiver Program."
Inbound travel to the United States already experienced something of a lost decade after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, said Dow. At that time, it took a sustained national policy effort to return the industry to pre-9/11 levels.
"If we don't want to give back all of that progress, the time to act is now," said Dow.
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