Record Number of Commercial Aircraft To Come Online Over Next 10 Years

The global airline industry is expected to take delivery of 36,000 new commercial aircraft over the coming decade, which amounts to a worldwide expansion of 33 percent.

Annually, that translates to a growth rate of about 2.9 percent for the airline industry, according to the recently released Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast 2023-2033 published by Oliver Wyman.

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The global commercial aviation fleet today sits at about 27,400 aircraft—a figure that is slightly less than the fleet size in January 2020, the last month before the COVID-19 pandemic brought the travel industry to a standstill and upended the economy.

The new industry report also points out that despite skyrocketing airfares and a year fraught with flight delays and cancellations, travelers remain largely undeterred. In December 2022 for example, global passenger traffic reached 82 percent of 2019 totals, which is the highest level since the global pandemic emerged.

As for the record number of aircraft coming online over the next 10 years, Air India recently placed the largest aircraft order in history. In February, the airline ordered 470 new planes, a transaction valued at about $85 billion. That order is being filled jointly by Airbus, which will provide 250 aircraft, and Boeing, which is contracted to provide 220.

Air India’s order is mostly for narrow-body aircraft, but also includes 787 Dreamliners from Boeing. The airline also has the option to purchase 370 more aircraft if needed.

The Middle East market is also on a rapid growth trajectory for the coming decade. According to the report, the region is one of the fastest-growing aviation markets in the world and its fleet is expected to expand by 5.1 percent over the next 10 years.

Globally, some 20,600 new production aircraft will be delivered to airlines over the coming decade. Most of these aircraft will be narrowbodies. This production is taking place at a time when the planet is searching for ways to combat climate change. The report acknowledges this reality.

“Over the next decade, aviation’s drive to expand is likely to bump up against various limitations from an overwhelmed supply chin, labor shortages, and new rules on emission reduction,” says the report. “That will push the industry to either develop innovative solutions or scale back.”

Global air travel and transport are responsible for about 3.5 percent of all drivers of climate change from human activities, according to a study published in the journal Atmospheric Environment, which involved evaluations of the aviation industry’s emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxide and also the effect of contrails.

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