It now appears to be evident that the flight of MH17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur was shot down by a surface to air missile as it flew over war-torn Ukraine. While it’s uncertain who fired the missile, it is certain to have some impact on tourism to Malaysia, especially on its flag carrier, which has been victimized now twice this year by what are apparently circumstances beyond its control. As Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak put it on Thursday, “This is a tragic day in what has already been a tragic year for Malaysia.”

“We’ve had some cancellations generally, but I don’t really think it’s accurate to blame it exclusively on the Malaysian Airline incident,” said Bob Drumm, the president of Alexander and Roberts. “There is so much chaos right now coming from the Middle East and Ukraine that it’s stimulating a generally cautious atmosphere among consumers about air travel. In my days at Pan Am, if there was any kind of air accident, the company just pulled in all advertising.”

“Some of our clients who are flying there are nervous,” said Patricia Cuneen, the president of EastQuest. “They’re all of a sudden asking questions about the routing they’re going to take. This could become a front-of-mind concern for travelers: ‘What route are we taking?’”

“Some of my clients, one in particular told me, he doesn’t want to fly over that part of the world,” said Mike Ross, president of Imagine Asia Travel. “Malaysian Airlines is going to take a bad hit for this.”

“No one has asked to see the flight routes yet, but I know that’s coming,” said Susan Farewell of Farewell Travels.

“It’s been shown that this incident could have happened to any number of carriers including Lufthansa or British Air, because they also used that route,” said Cuneen. “Some airlines have already said they’re going to reroute.”

All of the people contacted for this story made it clear from the start that the first tragedy was for the passengers of the flight, but having said that, they saw it as really bad for the Malaysian flag carrier. “Obviously it’s really bad for Malaysian Airlines because they’re also dealing with the disappeared flight,” said Cuneen.

“I hope it doesn’t impact the choices travelers make about Malaysia,” said Ross. “If they think logically about it they’ll have to conclude that Malaysia has nothing to do with this, but travelers don’t always think rationally. Malaysia, for what it’s worth, is a complete destination. Between Kuala Lumpur and Melaka and the natural beauty of Borneo, you don’t have to combine it with another country. It’s a great destination.”

Russian Payback

Russia has found itself in ugly news reports since before the Olympics, which themselves were a public relations disaster for Russian hospitality, but according to Drumm, “Our business to Russia is up on the whole. FIT’s are a bit more sensitive to bad relations between the two country because they may be nervous about being alone, but groups feel protected and continue to do brisk business.”

“Travelers who are angry at a country and who don’t want to go there for those reasons usually make that choice long before they get to their travel agent,” said Farewell. “I get fewer requests for Russia in general, but St. Petersburg does well. Somehow it’s perceived separately. The Hermitage is on a lot of short lists.” It might also reflect the fact that St. Petersburg is often marketed by a very aggressive Baltic Sea regional tourism effort, while Russia does very little marketing, if any in the U.S.

“You know,” said Farewell, “when the tear gas was being fired in Taksim (Istanbul), Tahrir (Cairo) or Syntagma (Athens) Squares there were people just a few blocks away in each city clinking their wine glasses in hotels. That’s the nature of travel. When things go bad somewhere I actually get a lot of calls from people who want to go there because they anticipate discounts.”