Your Ticket To Cuba: The Epic Climax of a Political War of Wills

I am in political junkie heaven right now. But there is an epic battle of wills coming, with the travel industry hoping the fighter they’re backing comes out on the right side of history.

Every four years, I revel in witnessing the evolution of the Presidential election process, and my oh my, this year has been the end-all-be-all when it comes to “evolving” this crazy game.

In the middle of this orgy of ideology and overload of ego, we are witnessing the concept of campaigning undergo a historical shift. Usually, TV talking head pundits throw their pasta bowl of predictions in the air and hope a piece or two of spaghetti sticks to the wall.

This year, those politicos are just shrugging in disgust as the family-sized dish of Donald Trump with a side of Bernie Sanders is being dumped on their heads and ruining their Armani suits and chemically whitened smiles.

What’s all the more perfect for me is that my two passions — politics and travel — are headed toward a collision that could alter two branches of government for years to come.

There are all kinds of intersection between these two worlds, as we’ve shown already and will continue to illuminate throughout this political season on TravelPulse, from the U.S. Travel Association's innovative approach to promoting travel on the campaign trail to the destinations worth seeing as you’re following your candidates in an all-time-high levels of enthusiasm and voter turnout.

Likewise, we’ve covered the fast-evolving opening of Cuba after a 50-year stalemate of principles between the two countries’ leaders.

We in the travel industry have a very biased view of the new world of U.S.-to-Cuba travel. U.S. travel professionals stand to open up a much-needed new revenue stream. And U.S. travelers stand on the cusp of being frontiersmen, ready to see one of the few worldwide locales still closed off to tourists.

The reality is that the Cuba issue alone could change the legacy of both President Barack Obama and the U.S. Supreme Court.

OK, enough with the hyperbolic 11 o’clock news teasers. Let me explain.

Obama has used a lot of executive power to sidestep Congress and open up educational type travel by U.S. citizens. But the final hurdle is largely in the hands of the Senate and House of Representatives. They must approve ending trade and travel restrictions altogether to allow for tourist travel to the country.

And Republican leaders have made it abundantly clear to any reporter that sticks a microphone in front of their face that they have no intention of ending the embargo.

Meanwhile, the unexpected death of U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia has created a political issue that threatens to hijack the Presidential election.

Candidates like Ted Cruz, Donald Trump and Marco Rubio have not agreed on much, but they are united in their no-exceptions opposition to Obama getting to nominate the next justice, let alone a confirmation hearing. They want to preserve the conservative majority among the leaders of the highest court in the land.

Most political pundits feel that Obama would be lucky to get either of his wishes to end his presidency. He may come up empty in finishing his work in opening Cuba and could have his Supreme Court pick blocked.

I give the Obama administration more credit than that, for one reason. Republicans loathe admitting it as accepted reality, but Obama is still in office until late January 2017 and he still holds the upper hand in any political battle.

How he uses that upper hand is the key.

Obama has angered the GOP and put Democratic leaders in an awkward position with his excessive use of executive power, but in theory, he has an ace still left in his tailored suit pocket. Even if Congress refuses to vote on Cuba before Obama leaves office, the President has the ability to issue an executive order after Congress recesses to end the year. And if that happens, the next President would have to undo that order – an unpopular step among the immense tourism industry that the new leader is not going to want to take.   

Still, experts say Obama is unlikely to take this path. This would be a huge step that would undermine the democratic process, a move that could anger even his most ardent defenders and give ammo that his critics will use aggressively to tarnish his final days in office.

So, how does this all shake out? My prediction is that Obama chooses the path that most enhances and ensures his legacy.

If he fights Republicans to put through a Supreme Court nominee, it’s still possible that nominee will never be confirmed.

But if he negotiates to back down on a nominee only if Republicans will end the Cuba embargo, he ensures a happy ending to restoring full relations with Cuba, a cause that is clearly important to the Obama administration as part of its legacy.

However this shakes out, one thing is clear: a decision that will have a multi-billion-dollar impact on the travel industry is at the center of a high-stakes game of Chicken among Washington power brokers.

Which side will blink? If there is an ultra-secret compromise achieved, how will each side spin the “victory” on CNN and FOX News? Yes, I am an epic nerd, but I am anticipating the resolution to this endgame as fervertly as “Walking Dead” fans count down the minutes to the next new episode.

Is this theory a reach? I truly don’t think so. Forgive my inner smile here. I’m unabashedly addicted to consuming the drama this is U.S. politics today and am waiting with giddy jitters to see how this script gets acted out.

Ultimately, I think we in the travel world come out on top here with Cuba. But there's a whole lot of Washington wargames that will be waged before we get that victory.

Follow @TimWoodPulse