Your 2017 Thanksgiving Travel Forecast

Thanksgiving air travel is notorious for crowds, bad weather, delays and flight cancellations. It’s easily one of the most challenging times of the year to fly.

In fact, according to a new report from RewardExpert, the risk of a delayed flight is higher over the Thanksgiving break than at any other time of year.

Travelers can reduce the likelihood of being stuck at an airport (or on the tarmac for that matter) by reviewing the past performance of various carriers and also airports themselves. Knowing which travel days are most prone to delays is also good information to keep in mind, according to the new report, titled 2017 Thanksgiving Holiday Air Travel Forecast.

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To develop its report, RewardExpert analyzed Department of Transportation data from the past five years, searching for where and when the most delays have occurred, as well as which airlines consistently delivered passengers to their destinations on time.

Among the top takeaways:

—Travelers are least likely to encounter delays the Saturday before the holiday. Avoid the Sunday before the holiday at all costs, however, as it’s the day with the highest rate of delays.

—Waiting until the last minute actually does pay off. The RewardExpert data analysis revealed that the lowest rates of delayed flights are on Thanksgiving Day. (For those who don’t mind showing up just a few minutes before the turkey comes out of the oven.)

—The Tuesday before turkey day is the second-worst day of flying. Data revealed that travelers are more likely to arrive on time if they wait until Wednesday. Over the past five years, an average of 84.9 percent of all flights on Thanksgiving Eve have been on time.

As for heading back home, after you’ve stuffed yourself thoroughly, it’s best to skip town early on Black Friday. In other words, eat and run because Friday offers the best chance of avoiding delays.

Sunday after Thanksgiving is also notorious for heavy delays, which get worse as the week progresses. Last year, the Monday after Thanksgiving was the worst day to fly back, according to the report.

As for top airline choices, here’s a snapshot from the report:

—Hawaiian Airlines continues to have the best on-time performance, despite a 3.8 percent increase in delays last Thanksgiving. Even then, 90.9 percent of the airline’s flights depart and arrive on-time. Hawaiian Airline’s on-time rate is a stellar 93.9 percent.

—Rounding out the top five performing airlines in order is Delta, Alaska, United, and American, all of which have on-time rates above 80 percent. (Some close to 90 percent.)

If flying a budget carrier is on the agenda, keep in mind that Southwest and Frontier showed the most improvement last year, reducing delays by 1.9 percent and 0.85 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, JetBlue had the greatest increase in delayed departures and arrivals, up 5.7 percent.

The best airport in the nation to be flying out of is Honolulu International Airport, which should come as no surprise given the often perfect weather of the Hawaiian islands. Over the past five years, 91.5 percent of all flights were on time.

READ MORE: How to Book Cheap 2017 Thanksgiving Travel

Chicago travelers will be happy to hear that airports there have improved in recent years. Both Chicago O’Hare and Midway increased their on-time performance in 2016, with 81.3 percent and 83.7 percent of flights arriving or departing without delays.

Travelers in the New York and New Jersey are out of luck, unfortunately. Not only do they live in one of the colder parts of the country, airports there are notorious for delays (and getting worse). Delays increased sharply at Newark’s Liberty International Airport last year, impacting more than one-quarter of all flights.

As a result, Newark now takes second place for worst on-time performance record, right behind the delay-plagued San Francisco International Airport.

If either of those happens to be your home airport, you may be out of luck. There's always the train.

The full report can be viewed at RewardExpert.

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