Travelers picked up some bad habits during the pandemic.
No, I'm not talking about fistfights on airplanes or spectacular blowups at front-line workers-those were never acceptable. But there were other habits travelers picked up that were justified in an era of lockdowns and border closures that aren't quite as necessary anymore.
I'm talking about booking last minute.
Soon after travelers returned to destinations still weary of super spreader events or new COVID-19 variants, travel providers had to do a lot to gain consumer confidence that their travel investments wouldn't be wasted if their trips were suddenly made less feasible by new travel restrictions or documentation requirements. US-based airlines largely retired change fees for most flights (the difference in fare between the old flight and the new flight still applies), and cruise and hotel companies loosened some of their policies to be more flexible.
Consumers, for their part, also started booking their trips more last minute. That made sense, because who wanted to drop a large sum on a trip a year in advance when nobody knew what the travel landscape would look like by the time they traveled?
During the pandemic, travelers were generally happy to be traveling again, and they understood there would be speed bumps on their journey. The world they had ventured hesitantly back out into was an extraordinary one. Now, with the industry normalizing, many travel providers find that customers are showing up, but they're showing up last-minute, and that wreaks havoc on travel systems.
The travel industry requires a lot of up-front cash outlay to operate, which means providers rely on accurate volume forecasts. Say you're operating a resort in Alaska during the short summer season. Alaska travelers tend to book farther in advance than other destinations, so in early spring, when the resorts start recruiting seasonal staff and ordering provisions for the summer season, they'll take into account their forecasted occupancy.
Say in March, your forecasts say you'll average 80% occupancy for the summer. You might have wanted it a tick higher, just to maximize your revenue potential, but 80% isn't bad. You might be fully committed (hotel industry parlance for "sold out") on average, one night a week, which can cause some frustration (particularly if a room or two goes out of order), but it's manageable. Maybe you can get by with one less shuttle driver, one less housekeeper, and one less restaurant server.
By mid-June, everybody's nerves are shot. The bookings rolled in later than expected, the resort is fully committed five nights a week and is understaffed and is having to reprovision more often and at greater expense. Most importantly, they're not able to offer the experience they promised their guests because they weren't able to adequately plan.
That's not to say nobody should ever book last minute. Pre-pandemic, most travel providers knew when their bookings would come in, and had gotten pretty good at forecasting volume based on past trends. It was key to a more profitable travel industry, but from a consumer's perspective, also one that was able to provide better service.
Now, one of the unexpected fallouts faced by the industry is what the "new normal" booking pattern will look like, and when it will be repeatable enough for travel providers to forecast with some confidence. It will make for a smoother experience for both consumers and sellers of travel.
For travelers, there are also benefits to booking in advance. It's those early comers that get the full range of options, allowing them to pick the experience they want down to the finest detail.
Cruise passengers will find good availability on a number of sailings, have the range of the ship's cabins to choose from, the dining time they want, and get first crack at the most popular shore excursions. If the cruise fare goes down after purchase, remember that most cruise lines will adjust fares as long as it's requested before the final payment is made (although it's important to bear in mind that any extra perks or promotions included with the original fare won't transfer if they're not included in the new fare).
Land-based travelers will find a wider range of accommodations and transportation available. Perhaps just being able to go on the trip was enough in the pandemic environment, but now, travelers can afford to be choosy about their preferences. Perhaps they want their favorite car rental company or their favorite recently-remodeled building at their favorite resort.
Some destinations are also booking ahead of their historic curves for 2023. Europe is forecasting a significant rebound for summer, and travelers who don't book early may face disappointment.
For travel providers, having that intention to travel stated well in advance will also give them more of that most valuable commodity-the only unreplaceable asset when it comes to planning and delivering a top-notch travel experience.
Time.
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