by Lacey Pfalz
Last updated: 8:20 AM ET, Mon January 13, 2025
Passenger air traffic from European Union airports will more than double in 2050 compared with 2019, while the continent will deplete its carbon budget as early as 2026, signalling that commercial aviation’s growth is faster and less aligned with climate goals that previously thought, according to a new study by green group Transport & Environment (T&E).
Aircraft in 2050 are expected to burn 59 percent more fuel, despite technological innovations in fuel efficiency, largely due to the growing number and demand of flights. Planes taking off from EU airports will burn 21.1 Mt of fossil kerosene in 2050, which requires 1.9 billion barrels of crude oil to be extracted each year.
While SAF production is ramping up, and goals to utilize sustainable aviation fuels require a 35 percent blend of e-fuels by 2050, the report also noted that, due to the high energy cost associated with producing the new fuels, the continent’s aviation industry’s energy needs would be higher than the entire country of Germany’s electricity demand in 2023.
Globally, aviation generates 2.5 percent of all carbon emissions produced each year. Transportation, including aviation, comprises 49 percent of all carbon emissions generated by the travel and tourism industry each year.
T&E’s study also took a look at the growth projections for Airbus and Boeing: under their projections, European aviation emissions in 2049 will only drop 3 percent from 2019. By 2050, when the EU’s goal is to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions, the commercial aviation industry will still be emitting 79 million tons of CO2.
So what could help bring the commercial aviation sector back on track for a sustainable transition? T&E encourages the European Commission to create new laws to slow airport growth, keep the reduction in corporate travel at 50 percent of 2019 levels, address “frequent flying,” and under-taxation.
“The numbers leave you speechless,” said Jo Dardenne, aviation director at T&E. “The aviation industry’s plans for growth are completely irreconcilable with Europe’s climate goals and the scale of the climate crisis. In a year, the sector will have exceeded its carbon allowance. A paradigm shift and real climate leadership are needed now to address the problem, or Europe’s planes will be eating up everyone else's resources. The credibility of the sector is on the line.”
“We applaud the European Commission’s world-beating 90% emissions reduction target,” Dardenne continues. “But such a target is completely meaningless without concrete policies to reduce emissions from aviation. The sector has been given countless free passes in its history - now it is time to change course. The EU needs to come up with a plan to address the tons and tons of aviation emissions released in the atmosphere every year.”
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