As autumn
approaches, leaf-peeping enthusiasts are eagerly anticipating Mother Nature's most
colorful spectacle. But, this year’s best fall foliage displays may not be in
the usual locations, according to a new
forecast from AccuWeather. The weather conditions seen across the U.S. during
summer might mean that some lesser-known areas could steal the show in 2024,
offering the most vibrant displays of red, orange and yellow leaves.
Weather’s Role in
Fall Foliage Brilliance
The vibrancy of autumn
colors are closely tied to weather patterns throughout the summer and early
fall. Consistent rainfall throughout the summer is a key factor in creating the
ideal conditions for healthy and vivid leaves. Drought, on the other hand,
stresses trees, causing them to shed their leaves prematurely and leading to
duller colors.
But there’s a
delicate balance to be struck, as too much rain can also pose a problem. “If
there's a lot of rain from late summer into the early fall, you can get mold to
develop on some of the trees and also invite lots of insects,” said Paul
Paselok, AccuWeather's Lead Long-Range Meteorologist.
Another important
ingredient for picturesque leafage is sunny days followed by cool nights, as
this combination accelerates the breakdown of chlorophyll in the leaves,
revealing the colorful pigments underneath. But again, balance is crucial,
since overnight frost can halt the development of pigments altogether and suddenly
end the leaf-peeping season.
The Best Places
for Leaf-Peeping in 2024
Thanks to an
optimal combination of weather patterns, 2024 is shaping up to be a fantastic
year for fall foliage across the Great Lakes region and the Mississippi River
Valley, extending to more than a dozen states.
"I think the
best places to go are parts of the Midwest," Pastelok noted, adding,
"The trees should have nice reds and oranges, and that could extend all
the way down to parts of the Ozarks and parts of southern Missouri."
In the Northeast, areas
like upstate New York, the Adirondacks and northern Pennsylvania—including the
Pennsylvania Grand Canyon and the Finger Lakes region—are also predicted to
prove prime leaf-peeping destinations.
Areas Where Autumn
Displays May Disappoint
While much of the
Midwest and Northeast may dazzle onlookers with brilliant leafy displays, the eastern
U.S. may let down leaf-peepers this year. Unseasonably warm and humid weather
in from mid-to-late September is forecast to make the start of autumn feel more
like summer, which will impact the formation of fall colors from New England to
the southern Appalachians.
"If you add
on tropical moisture coming out of the Southeast up into the Northeast at
times, that could also lead to mold development and a lot of insects,"
Pastelok said. Drought conditions in these regions can lead to lackluster
displays. Plus, potential tropical winds could blow the leaves off trees, bringing
the leaf-peeping season to an abrupt end.
Meanwhile, in the
Western U.S., conditions also appear less favorable for the formation of fall hues,
although select spots could still deliver kaleidoscopic displays.
"We've had
heat and drought here in the back end of the summer in full force, that's going
to persist into the early part of the fall season," Pastelok explained about
his predictions for the Rockies. The peak leaf-peeping period will also be
delayed by the late arrival of autumnal weather.
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