Air travelers heading into
summer—especially those eyeing Europe—should
brace themselves for higher prices and fewer options, as airlines contend with
surging fuel costs.
Skyrocketing fuel
costs tied to the war in Iran are putting pressure on airlines worldwide. Over
the past couple of months, carriers have already begun raising fares, tacking
on fuel surcharges and raising checked bag fees. In some cases, they’re cutting
flights altogether to help manage rising operating costs.
Since the war began
in late February, average international airfare has jumped from $776 to $1,064,
while U.S. domestic tickets have also crept from an average of $335 to $358,
according to an analysis by travel search engine Kayak.
At the same time, global
jet fuel prices have soared by more than 70 percent, according to the Platts
Jet Fuel Price Index. With jet fuel being among airlines’ biggest operating
expenses, major U.S. carriers are anticipating spending billions extra this
year.
“There is a level
of uncertainty here that we have not seen since Covid when it comes to travel,”
Katy Nastro, a travel expert at Going.com, told The
New York Times. “This will be a challenging year for the average traveler
hoping to take an affordable summer vacation.”
Cutting Flight Schedules
The current fuel
crisis is affecting carriers everywhere, but Europe is the region that’s already
under the most strain, given concerns that jet fuel supplies could start
running short as early as mid-May.
In response, major
European carriers including Lufthansa
and KLM
have already begun scaling back their schedules, cutting thousands of flights
in an effort to conserve fuel. More airlines could soon follow suit, scaling
back operations, especially on routes that don’t consistently fill up.
United
Airlines’ chief commercial officer, Andrew Nocella, said prices have already
been raised “across the board” five times since the Iran conflict began, while
capacity is being reduced by about 5 percent through the rest of the year. On an
earnings call this week, he said the carrier is trimming lower-demand flights,
including red-eyes and off-peak departures.
Europe as a
Benchmark
Analysts say U.S.
airlines are in a somewhat stronger position than their European and Asian
counterparts, which depend more heavily on Middle
Eastern oil supplies. The United States, by comparison, benefits from
substantial domestic oil reserves and a well-developed refining infrastructure.
That means European
airlines will be more vulnerable to fuel supply disruptions, and those supplies
are currently guaranteed only through the middle or end of May, according to a
J.P. Morgan report. This could lead to more disruptions for the region’s
carriers as we head into the peak summer travel season.
“Europe is going
to be like this leading indicator. Any of the issues that are going to sort of
hit the U.S. traveler, we’re going to see those roll out in Europe first,” said
Christopher Anderson, a professor at Cornell University. “If this persists, air
travel is going to get way more expensive and with way less flexibility to get
there.”
As a result, in
recent days, airlines across Europe have significantly scaled back their flight
schedules.
Germany’s
Lufthansa said it will cut 20,000 flights over the next six months to help conserve
jet fuel, while KLM plans to drop 160 flights on routes it operates multiple
times a day, including service to cities like London and Düsseldorf. Meanwhile,
Norse Atlantic Airways has scrapped its Los Angeles flights altogether.
Experts are urging
travelers with summer or fall plans to book sooner rather than later, warning
that the fuel situation remains unpredictable and could put even more pressure
on airlines in the months ahead.
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