ForwardKeys Introduces New Air Capacity Forecast

The ForwardKeys data science team has developed a new air capacity forecast that provides detailed information extending up to 12 months into the future, broken down by route and flight level.

The new forecast has also been designed to “swiftly respond to the multifaceted changes in actual airline performance versus scheduling, reflecting the dynamic responses of carriers to evolving factors,” ForwardKeys said in a statement about the release of its new offering.

The new solution includes three algorithms:

• A sophisticated machine learning model that predicts the likelihood of a scheduled flight being de-scheduled or cancelled.
• A complementary machine learning model that forecasts total seats for a given route and flight up to a year in advance.
• An algorithm that intelligently combines the outputs of the machine learning models to generate the final, comprehensive Air Capacity Forecast.

 

ForwardKeys said the algorithms help address the challenges currently impacting the air travel industry.

“The main challenge for travel-dependent industries in relying on scheduled air capacity lies in its volatility,” Daria Kalenskaya, head of product & innovation for ForwardKeys, a Spain-based data management company, said in a statement. “When airlines publish schedules a year in advance, they cannot be certain of the fleet and seat capacity they will use versus the operational reality or demand on that route. The difference between scheduled air capacity (published by the airlines) and actual flown air capacity can vary by up to eight times for specific dates and routes.”

The new forecasts are able to adapt to sudden changes in the aviation landscape, including changes in flight frequency, operational fleet constraints, commercial adjustments to seat volumes, or even force majeure events like civil unrest, conflicts, or natural disasters.

In addition, the ForwardKeys predictions can be adjusted based on multiple inputs, ensuring that it constantly provides the most up-to-date and accurate capacity forecasts.

“We measure the accuracy of our forecasts using the Average Percentage Error (APE), comparing our predictions to actual air seats flown data — and now achieve over 98.7 percent accuracy on some of the routes, with improvements week on week,” the company said in a statement.

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