by Mia Taylor
Last updated: 3:05 PM ET, Mon September 28, 2026
Another day, another prediction about the direction of airline ticket prices amid the destabilization of the jet fuel market driven by the U.S. - Israel attack on Iran.
A new Associated Press report, based on insights from airline and industry analysts, says travelers are likely to continue seeing higher ticket prices this fall, even if oil and jet fuel prices should come down.
For those who need a refresher, jet fuel prices skyrocketed after the Trump and Netanyahu administrations attacked Iran, which ultimately led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
In May 2026 alone, U.S. carriers spent $6.66 billion on jet fuel, an 84 percent increase from the same period last year, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.
Since the attack on Iran, prices have been on a rollercoaster ride, making it especially challenging for commercial airlines to plan and requiring caution before making any significant moves to reduce ticket prices.
When the war first began, carriers also responded by slashing some less profitable flights and increasing checked-baggage fees. But those measures did not entirely cover the now-exorbitant costs of jet fuel.
More recently, in mid-September, American Airlines, United Airlines and Southwest Airlines executives told reporters they will cut capacity to ensure profitability amid the worsening economic environment, according to Reuters.
In Q3, U.S. airlines will fly 0.6% less capacity than they did a year earlier, according to a Deutsche Bank analysis. Q4 capacity however, is slated to increase 1.9%. Still, with U.S. GDP growth projected to be approximately 2% this year, capacity growth would normally be somewhere between 3% to 4%.
Airfares meanwhile, have increased significantly amid the geopolitical turmoil. The average cost of an airline ticket, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, reported by AP, rose from $405 in the last three months of 2025 to $428 in the first quarter of this year and to $436 in the April-June time frame. That cost does not include optional fees for services such as checked bags and seat selection.
An analyst from Deutsche Bank, Michael Linenberg, has said that the U.S. airline industry implemented 10 fare increases since mid-March alone, when fuel prices first increased as a result of the Iran war.
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