An overwhelming 7.8 billion travelers are projected to fly in 2036, according to the International Air Transport Association's (IATA) latest 20-year forecast.
The massive figure represents a near doubling of the 4 billion passengers expected to take to the skies in 2017. The updated prediction is based on a 3.6 percent average Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR).
The association's 20-Year Air Passenger Forecast takes into consideration several factors, including the emerging middle class in developing nations, diverging demographic outlooks, the liberalization of new and existing aviation markets and climate change.
Growth could potentially vary depending on those and other factors. According to IATA's research, increased trade protectionism and travel restrictions could slow CAGR to a mere 2.7 percent, meaning 1.1 billion fewer passengers by the year 2036.
Meanwhile, increased liberalization and relaxed regulations beyond current estimates could lead to a tripling in passenger journeys over the next two decades.
Similar to last year's forecast, IATA anticipates the Asia-Pacific region to remain the biggest driver of air travel demand. The region is projected to account for more than half of the new passengers in the next two decades, with China expected to surpass the U.S. as the world's largest aviation market by 2022.
The Asia-Pacific region's annual average growth rate of 4.6 percent trails only Africa (5.9 percent) and the Middle East (5 percent).
Trailing China and the U.S. among the five fastest-growing markets based on annual new passengers in 2036 are India, Indonesia and Turkey. The U.S. is expected to see 401 million new air travelers by 2036 for a total of 1.1 billion.
"All indicators lead to growing demand for global connectivity. The world needs to prepare for a doubling of passengers in the next 20 years. It's fantastic news for innovation and prosperity, which is driven by air links," IATA's Director General and CEO, Alexandre de Juniac said in a statement. "It is also a huge challenge for governments and industry to ensure we can successfully meet this essential demand."
The organization points out that modernizing airport infrastructure and finding innovative solutions to challenges like security and cargo handling will be key for the industry to meet the growing demand.
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However, airlines already appear to be at the forefront of combating the challenge of climate change.
"No industry has done more to meet its environmental obligations than aviation. Our tough targets to achieve carbon-neutral growth from 2020 and to cut our CO2 emissions to half-2005 levels by 2050 are backed by a comprehensive strategy," added de Juniac. "Our immediate aims are to work with governments to increase the production of sustainable aviation fuels and to deliver air traffic management efficiencies, which promise significant emissions savings."
Earlier this year, IATA reported global demand for air travel was up 7.9 percent over the first six months of 2017, propelled by improving economies and low airfares.
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