The U.S.
Travel Association has just published its biannual
travel forecast report, which paints a picture of a challenging future for
travel to and within the United States through 2027. The report, compiled by
Tourism Economics, indicates that both international inbound travel and
domestic business travel will struggle to reach pre-pandemic levels in 2024.
This fresh forecast
comes on the heels of a global competitiveness report
by Euromonitor International, where the U.S. ranked 17th out of 18 top
markets for travel, due to historical underinvestment and a lack of strategic
focus from federal policymakers.
“While we inch
back to pre-pandemic travel numbers, other countries are actively advancing
strategies to gain international visitors and are now ahead of the United
States in the race to win back the global travel market,” U.S. Travel
Association President and CEO Geoff Freeman said in a statement. “The federal
government can and must enact specific policies to jumpstart a more seamless,
efficient and globally competitive travel industry.”
The forecast’s key
findings include:
- International travel to the U.S. is
anticipated to grow, but remains below full pre-pandemic recovery. Such external
factors as a global macroeconomic slowdown, a robust U.S. dollar, and
extended visa wait times could impede growth. This year’s visitor volumes are
expected to reach 98 percent of 2019 levels, finally achieving full
recovery in 2025. When adjusted for inflation, spending levels are expected
to take until 2026 to fully recover.
- Competing nations worldwide have
rebounded more swiftly to their pre-pandemic visitation rates, with some—like
France and Spain—even having expanded their share of the global travel
market. In contrast, the U.S.’ global market share is actually shrinking.
- The business travel segment is
projected to continuing growing this year, although at a slower rate. By
the end of 2024, volume is expected to reach 95 percent of 2019 levels, up
from 89 percent in 2023 levels, but isn’t predicted to fully recover until
2026. Domestic business travel spending is unlikely to return to
pre-pandemic levels within the forecasted range.
- The growth of domestic leisure travel slowed
in 2023 as consumer spending diminished, due to factors like higher
borrowing costs and tighter credit conditions. While the sector achieved a
full recovery to pre-pandemic levels in 2022, this deceleration poses new
challenges.
The forecast
underscores the critical role of federal policies in stimulating travel growth
and bolstering global competitiveness. Recommendations include reducing U.S. visitor
visa interview wait times, alleviating customs wait times at entry points,
expediting the deployment of biometric security systems and enhancing the air
travel experience through long-term FAA reauthorization.
In response to the
challenges outlined, the U.S. Travel Association has initiated the Seamless and
Secure Travel Commission, a group comprising former government officials and
private sector experts. This commission aims to propose policy recommendations
to modernize the travel experience, enhance U.S. competitiveness, and foster
growth. The commission plans to unveil its recommendations in the fall of 2024,
aligning with the broader call for concerted efforts to revitalize the travel
industry.
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