No matter how you feel about the federal government contemplating a second bailout for the U.S. airline industry, one thing is clear.
If they get it, if carriers are able to secure payroll protection for employees and avoid massive layoffs come Oct. 1, the industry will not only be able to navigate another half-year of the coronavirus pandemic but also set its agenda for the next decade and beyond.
Oh, it will take some doing.
Airlines will have to start with a clean slate in 2021. Any previous plans, particularly for new and maybe unconventional routes, will have to be put on hold. They might have to rethink the hub-and-spoke system in the way it connects smaller airports to larger ones and, ultimately, the world.
They must become far more efficient with their aircraft. Older aircraft will be swapped out for newer models, albeit that's a proposition that could become significantly easier (and better) if the Federal Aviation Administration returns the Boeing 737 MAX to the air after two years of being sidelined following two fatal crashes.
But make no mistake, airlines have said they wanted to get smaller in the wake of the pandemic. Now they have no choice. Now they must become lean, mean flying machines.
Changes are afoot already, to be sure. American Airlines, for instance, had already announced a new partnership with Alaska Airlines to help service to the west coast and to compete with Delta in the key hub city of Seattle, where it can launch new long-haul flights. American also just moved several of its flights to Asia from Los Angeles International back to its main hub at Dallas-Fort Worth.
Health and safety will also be front and center. The virus could magically go away tomorrow, but the new protocols for cleanliness and sanitization are staying forever. Travelers might even be asked to produce an immunity certificate along with their passports in order to be able to travel.
Expect to see more automation, more artificial intelligence, in the years to come. Airlines will work on new seating configurations, such as middle seats turned around and facing the other way - but not without sacrificing coveted space on the plane that helps a carrier jam in as many people as they can in order to turn a profit.
It's like buying a house. You purchase it, you nurture it, you make investments in it, and if you ever feel the need to sell, all the expenses you incurred making improvements in the beginning will pay off in the end.
"We want political leaders and the public alike to see that our industry is setting a very high standard for reducing the risk of coronavirus in our businesses and that the practices in place to achieve that standard are consistent through every phase of the travel experience," Roger Dow, U.S. Travel Association President and CEO, said in a statement earlier this year. "As travel reopens, travelers need the confidence that safety measures are in place from their departure to their return home."
Look, airlines have had to constantly reinvent themselves over the course of aviation history. It could have been technology-driven, with jet engines, or it could have been catastrophe driven, like 9/11. It's nothing new. And, to be frank, while the industry needed help at times - 9/11 and now, for instance - it has reaped the rewards many times as well. Let's face it, the airlines turned the whole idea of picking your seat or checking your bags or changing your flight into a cash cow with all those ancillary fees.
Life, in the last decade, was very, very good to the airlines.
Now they will have to be better while being smaller and more efficient.
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