The future of air travel just changed on a quiet Sunday.
But let's talk about the present, first.
Let's not kid ourselves about the main reason why United Airlines on Sunday decided to eliminate the exorbitant fees to change your ticket - a move that was followed Monday by American and Delta, and today by Alaska.
Airlines need cash, plain and simple.
The coronavirus has devastated air travel. The number of people getting on an airplane since March dropped to just five percent of capacity at one point compared to last year, with some flights flying with a dozen, half-dozen even just one passenger. Even now, nearly six months later, capacity is still only about 30 percent.
So United's decision was a trade-off, of sorts. To lure more fliers into traveling and purchasing tickets, the airlines are willing to trade the few for the many - the few who may or may not need to change their flight for a fee in the future, for the many that carriers need to book a fare in the here and now.
When it happened, I called it a brilliant public relations move by United. And I still believe that and am more convinced that it's a great move for the future of air travel because of another trade-off.
The airlines just swapped revenue for goodwill.
For years, carriers have drawn the ire of their customers with a plethora of ancillary fees, ranging from baggage to seat selection to on-board food. It was lucrative for everybody, to say the least. Everybody. Even Southwest Airlines - which allows you to check two bags for free and does not have any change fees - nonetheless led the industry in 2018 by earning $18 out of every $100 collected just from ancillary fees.
Congress even got involved in this.
The airlines wouldn't budge.
But they see the writing on the wall now.
Almost every airline CEO has said the industry is about to change, and they will become much, much smaller in the aftermath of the pandemic, whenever that will be. That will include revenue. And assuming the industry gets back to 2019 levels at some point, it will mean using this next six months, year, year-and-a-half to start building goodwill back with customers.
That can't be underestimated and certainly not undervalued.
While the airlines have spent the last decade making record-setting profits, and pumping it into stock buybacks, the flying public has become disenfranchised. Flying had become difficult. Stressful. Expensive. But with United's decision - and the expected similar moves by fellow airlines in what is a highly incestuous industry - it will go a long way toward bringing back customers who now, more than ever, are on the fence about flying.
You can't necessarily measure goodwill in dollars and cents, but you can measure it in sense.
If the airlines just removed one obstacle to flying in the future by eliminating change fees, they just bought themselves a chance.
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