Heading into the busy summer travel months, airline demand around the world took a notable dip in May 2026, according to new data from IATA.
Over the course of the month, total global demand fell 2.2% compared to May 2025, IATA’s report says.
International air travel demand dipped by 1.6%, while domestic demand shrank by 3.1% year over year.
But on the whole, the lower demand was due to the impact of the war with Iran, according to IATA’s Director General Willie Wash. “The decline was centered on carriers in the Middle East with a 28.4% year-on-year fall,” Walsh said.
Operations and demand continue to improve throughout the Middle East as negotiations to formally end the conflict with Iran continue. May’s data is “a significant improvement on the 46.6% decline recorded for April, a sign of the region’s resilience,” Walsh said.
But it wasn’t just the Middle East. Other regions also saw air travel demand shrink amid the global headwinds. “Notably, we also saw year-on-year contractions in demand in both North America and Asia, largely related to domestic market conditions in the US and China,” Walsh said.
Overall demand in North America was 0.8% lower year over year in May 2026, while the Asia-Pacific region’s demand fell by 1.4%.
The good news is that despite the slightly lower air travel numbers in May, overall airline demand remained relatively resilient amid the higher costs of jet fuel and airfares, according to Walsh.
But even though oil prices are becoming cheaper, the headwinds will take time to sort out. Passengers should brace themselves to see elevated airfares continue into the near future.
“While the recent sharp drop in oil prices is an encouraging development, the challenges created by the war will likely persist for some time,” Walsh said. “Oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain and it is likely to take time before the benefit of lower oil prices is reflected in ‘normalized’ jet fuel pricing.”
In the meantime, airlines will continue to make airfares more expensive as they attempt to cover the ongoing elevated costs of jet fuel.
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