IATA Study Suggests Air-Travel Demand Will Be Slow to Return

The results of a newly-released study, commissioned by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which questioned recent travelers in the U.S. and ten other countries indicate that only about fourteen percent of people would be willing to fly immediately once governments lift their severe COVID-19-related restrictions on travel.

40 percent of would-be passengers said that they would not consider getting on a plane again for at least six months after the pandemic has been contained and travel bans are lifted. 60 percent of respondents said they might begin to travel again after one to two months of viral containment.

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“Passenger confidence will suffer a double whammy even after the pandemic is contained—hit by personal economic concerns in the face of a looming recession on top of lingering concerns about the safety of travel,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

Indeed, 69 percent of those surveyed said that they may delay their return to travel until they get a better handle on their personal financial situations. Their concerns will also likely extend to considering the overall state of the economy, as the disruption and instability caused by the pandemic won’t be resolved overnight.

According to The Points Guy, Delta Air Lines’ CEO, Ed Bastian, remarked during an April 22 quarterly earnings call, “A recovery will be dictated by our customers feeling safe, both physically and financially.” He also predicted that Delta will operate as a much smaller airline when regular operations do resume and that it could take two to three years for business to truly recover.

Brian Pearce, IATA’s chief economist, commented upon the survey results, saying, “Confidence is everything. We really do need to see measures that restore passenger confidence,” and suggested that both airlines and national governments will need to invent new initiatives to address customers’ trepidations over returning to the skies.

Indications as to customers’ cautious approach to resuming travel are being taken from the situations in China and Australia, where infection rates have already fallen to very low levels.

In China, domestic demand for flights has somewhat recovered, said IATA, but plateaued at just over 40 percent of pre-pandemic levels and load factors on these flights are reported to be low. In Australia, where the rate of new infections has also fallen into the single digits, there is still no sign of recovery in terms of air-travel demand, with the country’s total domestic flights sitting at ten percent of pre-COVID-19 levels.

For more information, visit iata.org.