PwC's latest forecast for the U.S. hospitality industry projects that average daily room rates (ADR) will increase 16.9 percent for the year, propelling 2022 RevPAR (revenue per available room) to a 28.1 percent jump or approximately 106 percent of pre-pandemic levels, on a nominal dollar basis.
It's also expected that annual occupancy for U.S. hotels in 2022 will improve slightly from PwC's previous November 2021 outlook, increasing to 63.1 percent. However, ADR remains the "big story," as these figures surpassed comparable 2019 levels in every month of Q3 and Q4 last year as well as in February, March and April of this year. PwC anticipates this to continue through the forecast period.
"While leisure travel continued to drive much of lodging's demand in Q1, individual business travel and group business have started to emerge as we head into the warmer months. Strong leisure business is expected to cause demand compression over the summer, driving room rates and resultant RevPAR levels to new highs," PwC points out. "If tensions ease in Ukraine and immunity levels continue to increase domestically, a stronger Q4 driven by a resurgence in business transient and group demand is expected."
"Despite volatility in the financial markets and heightened concerns over the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine, we now expect U.S. hotels to surpass 2019 RevPAR levels this year, driven by strong growth in room rates stemming from focused revenue management strategies of operators," Warren Marr, US Hospitality & Leisure Managing Director, said in a statement.
PwC warns that "lodging's recovery could still be bumpy this year" to the ripple effect of Russia's invasion of Ukraine along with slowing COVID-19 vaccination rates in the U.S. and the continued emergence of new variants.
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