by Mia Taylor
Last updated: 2:27 PM ET, Mon February 4, 2019
More than 300,000 travel and tourism jobs in the United Kingdom and almost 400,000 jobs in Europe could be at risk if the UK leaves the European Union without a deal in place on March 29 as part of Brexit.
A new analysis just released by the World Travel & Tourism Council says a "No Deal" Brexit would have a tremendously damaging impact on what represents one of the UK's most important economic sectors.
The travel and tourism industry contributes about $244 billion to the UK's GDP (10.5 percent of the total) and supports about four million jobs (11.6 percent).
As for the European Union, the sector is responsible for about $1.7 trillion in GDP, which is about 10.3 percent of the total GDP, according to the WTTC report. The industry also supports 27.3 million jobs (11.7 percent of the total).
The new WTTC analysis also models the impact on the travel and tourism sector over the next decade, based on a 7.7 percent forecasted fall in economic activity across the wider UK economy modeled by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
In such a situation, a No Deal Brexit would result in the following impacts:
-A loss of 308,000 jobs in the UK economy
-A loss of 399,000 jobs in the rest of the EU
-A loss of $21 billion in GDP to the UK economy
-A loss of $25 billion in GDP to the economies of the rest of the EU
In its just issued statement, the WTTC suggests that in order to minimize the impact of a no deal Brexit, it is crucial that the UK continues to have access to the Single Aviation Market.
Visa-free travel between the UK and EU should also be maintained and the movement of people should be as seamless as possible while maintaining security, said the WTTC.
"Mobility of labor for travel and tourism employees across the UK and EU should continue," adds the WTTC statement.
Security co-operation that would allow for avoiding hard border checks and lengthy delays is also paramount, said the organization.
"The UK is the fifth largest travel and tourism economy in the world," said Gloria Guevara, WTTC president and CEO. "Given its importance to the UK economy, it is now clear that a No Deal Brexit would have a dramatic impact on one of the UK's most significant sectors."
"If the IMF prediction on the wider economy is realized, there would be a total cost across Europe of over £40 billion and over 700,000 jobs compared to our projections," added Guevara. "Our members are already seeing an impact on their businesses and workforce."
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