Update: October 20, 2023 at 4:00 p.m. ET
Hurricane Norma has slightly weakened in the eastern Pacific, but continues to be a major storm as it the southern portion of Mexico’s Baja California Sur, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. It’s expected to arrive near or over the southern tip of the peninsula—where the twin resort towns of Los Cabos are located—on Saturday, then move across the Gulf of California toward mainland Mexico’s west coast through Sunday night.
Data gathered by the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicates that maximum sustained windspeeds are currently around 110 mph, with gusts being even stronger. Hurricane-force winds extend as far outward as 35 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward for up to 175 miles from the center of the storm.
Norma is now a Category 2 hurricane, sitting about 245 miles south of Cabo San Lucas and moving north-northwest at 8 mph. Analysts expect the storm to gradually weaken over the next few days, but will still be a hurricane-strength storm as it passes near the southern part of Baja California Sur, possibly making landfall.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive Friday night in the parts of Baja California Sur covered by the National Weather Service’s hurricane warning, with hurricane conditions starting on Saturday. Through Sunday, Norma is anticipated to deliver rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, or as much as 15 inches locally across the southern tip of Baja California Sur, as well as across portions of Sinaloa through Monday.
The downpour is likely to produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Near the coast, the storm surge could produce areas of coastal flooding where onshore winds are present, along with large and destructive ocean waves.
Original Text
As Hurricane Norma intensifies into a major storm on Thursday, it's traveling on a trajectory toward Mexico’s Pacific coast on a course that’s projected to take it dangerously near the perennially popular tourist destination of Los Cabos.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center has issued advisories and for the Eastern Pacific region and announced a hurricane watch for southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, where Los Cabos—which consists of twin resort towns San Jose del Cabo and Cabo San Lucas—is located.
Currently a Category 4 hurricane, Norma is located about 410 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, and is moving northward at a speed of 7 mph, while producing maximum sustained windspeeds of 130 mph.
The storm is predicted to start weakening as it approaches land on Friday, although it’s still unclear whether it will actually make landfall in Los Cabos or potentially alter course and, instead, impact Mexico's Sinaloa state to the east.
Graphic illustrating the probable path of Hurricane Norma. (Photo Credit: U.S. National Hurricane Center)
One of U.S. National Hurricane Center’s hurricane specialists, John Cangialosi, told AP News noted that predicting Norma's path is proving challenging. The storm is forecast to continue on its northbound trajectory into Saturday, but will then slow to a crawl and linger over the southern part of the Baja California Peninsula.
If Norma does slow down and hover over the area instead of moving on quickly, experts are concerned about the possibility of prolonged heavy rain and strong winds.
The Hurricane Center noted that “Heavy rains from Norma will begin to impact the far southern ports of California Baja Sur on late Friday, continuing through Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain.”
Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Tammy is currently located 425 miles east-southeast of Guadeloupe, moving west-northwest at a speed of 15 mph and generating maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. A hurricane watch is now in effect for the Southern Caribbean island group, which is designated a French overseas territory.
Tammy is expected to gather strength over the coming weekend as it approaches the Leeward Islands, and could potentially reach hurricane force by Saturday, when it’s forecast to pass by Barbuda and St. Martin.
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