Travel spending this year will continue to be flat - just as it was in 2017 - along with a potential decline in the overall number of vacations taken through 2019, according to MMGY Global's 2018 to 2019 Portrait of American Travelers.
The report, the firm's 28th, is based this year on interviews with nearly 3,000 American leisure travelers who have an annual household income of $50,000 or more and who took at least one trip of 75 miles or more during the last year.
This year's findings - along with those of 2017 - are in stark contrast with 2016, a record-breaking year when, "we saw travel like we've never seen before," said Steve Cohen, senior vice president of travel insights at MMGY Global. Cohen presented major findings from the report at a press conference in New York City on June 19.
Twenty-one percent of travelers reported their intention to take more vacations this year versus 30 percent who said they plan to take fewer; that translates potentially into six million fewer vacations in 2018 compared to 2017, according to the report. The nine-point decline also represents the first negative variance in 12 years.
Despite the lackluster finding, however, the forecast is by no means all negative, Cohen said, adding that, "We shouldn't be panicked or raise the red flags."
While travelers may take fewer trips this year, they plan to spend the same amount overall as they did in 2017, meaning they will spend more per trip, Cohen explained. That makes sense given another finding: Travelers are taking more five-day vacations versus weekend vacations. A boost in spending for longer trips can be expected.
Noting the cyclical nature of travel, Cohen also reported that while the study predicts a softening in travel for this year, travel in the second quarter of 2018 - the summer season - remains strong.
The industry's continued focus on the importance of Millennials is, once again, borne out in other findings.
While Matures remain the biggest overall spenders on travel, Millennials are the only generation to indicate they plan to spend more on travel in the coming years.
This generation also reports the smallest drop in their vacation intentions, at 3 percent, compared to Matures with the largest drop, at 13 percent.
Millennial families also continue to be a powerful force.
"In past years, Millennial families have been more dominant in travel spending, remaining the highest performing segment of this generation due to both their numbers and intent to increase travel spending," Cohen said.
This year for the first time, MMGY included political attitudes as one of the personality traits for respondents to note.
The generational breakdown for Liberals was: 31 percent for Millennials, 30 percent of Xer's, 33 percent of Boomers, and 37 percent of Matures. For Conservatives, it was 21 percent of Millennials, 26 percent of Xer's, 37 percent of Boomers, and 45 percent of Conservatives.
Cohen said that, based on those identifiers, the report found liberals are likely to spend more on travel, are likely to use ride- and home-sharing services, and go straight to travel suppliers and comparative shopping sites for their travel planning.
Conservatives travelers were much more optimistic about the future of the U.S., he added.
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