Airline passenger numbers are expected to reach an all-time high over the two-month spring break period in 2026, according to new industry estimates.
United States airlines expect to carry 2.8 million passengers per day during March and April 2026, says a new forecast from Airlines for America (A4A), an industry lobbying group that represents the six largest U.S. airlines.
A total of 171 million passengers are expected to fly during the two-month stretch, which is a four percent increase compared to March and April 2025. U.S. airlines are planning to operate a whopping 26,000 daily flights with 3.5 million seats.
The record-breaking travel estimates come as the U.S. government’s partial shutdown continues into its second week. The shutdown has left only one government department unfunded: the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees the TSA and Customs and Border Protection (CBP).
“U.S. airlines are ready for the travel rush this spring, but we have grave concerns that millions of travelers are once again being used as a political football by the federal government amid another government shutdown,” said A4A President and CEO Chris Sununu. “It is past time for Congress to get to the table and strike a deal that ensures TSA and CBP can fully operate and their frontline employees can be paid for the important work they do to keep our skies secure.”
The department’s shutdown has caused confusion for travelers due to various shifting policies. Homeland Security officials announced over the weekend that trusted traveler programs like TSA PreCheck and Global Entry would no longer be staffed during the government closure. However, the department then suddenly relented and said PreCheck would remain operational while Global Entry would not.
The move has drawn criticism from travel experts, not only because the programs allow for quicker processing of travelers before and after flights, but also because the two initiatives are funded by users’ membership fees and not federal funds.
“We also are deeply concerned that the Department of Homeland Security has not fully reopened the Global Entry program after suspending it on February 21,” Sununu said. “There is no need and no data that supports the decision to suspend the Global Entry program, and DHS should act with urgency to reverse course and reopen the Global Entry program. DHS did an about-face and reopened TSA PreCheck lanes—because it is common sense to have these programs fully functioning, especially ahead of spring break travel.”
Sununu added that Global Entry “is efficient, saves resources and enhances national security.” The program lightens the work load for CBP officers as well: in 2025, Global Entry saved about 300,000 officer hours, A4A says.
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