Study Finds Global Airlines Are Expected to Lose $51.8 Billion in 2021

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) revealed airlines are expected to lose $11.6 billion in 2022 after a $51.8 billion loss in 2021.

According to data from the IATA, coronavirus-related loss estimates for 2020 have been revised to $137.7 billion—up from $126.4 billion—with total industry losses in 2020-2022 expected to reach $201 billion.

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While demand is expected to reach 40 percent of 2019 levels for 2021, rising to 61 percent in 2022, total passenger numbers are expected to reach 2.3 billion in 2021 and 3.4 billion in 2022.

Commercial airline capacity is expected to increase faster than demand growth, reaching 50 percent of pre-crisis levels for 2021. The average passenger load factor in 2021 is expected to be just 67.1 percent, a level not seen since 1994.

“The magnitude of the COVID-19 crisis for airlines is enormous. Over the 2020-2022 period total losses could top $200 billion,” IATA Director General Willie Walsh said. “To survive airlines have dramatically cut costs and adapted their business to whatever opportunities were available.”

“That will see the $137.7 billion loss of 2020 reduce to $52 billion this year. And that will further reduce to $12 billion in 2022,” Walsh continued. “We are well past the deepest point of the crisis. While serious issues remain, the path to recovery is coming into view. Aviation is demonstrating its resilience yet again.”

The IATA study shows that domestic demand is driving the recovery, with the Global GDP expected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2021 and a further 4.1 percent in 2022.

In 2021, domestic demand is expected to reach 73 percent of pre-crisis levels, while domestic demand is estimated to reach 93 percent of pre-pandemic levels in 2022. International demand is expected to reach 22 percent of pre-crisis levels in 2021 and 44 percent in 2022.