by Lacey Pfalz
Last updated: 9:10 AM ET, Tue March 17, 2026
Global air passenger demand is expected to more than double by 2050, according to the International Airport Transport Association's (IATA) Long-Term Demand Projections report.
The analysis adopted a mid-range scenario, in which demand could reach 20.8 trillion revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) at a compound annual growth rate of 3.1 percent through 2050.
The projection is based on 2024, when RPKs reached 9 trillion. Higher or lower growth scenarios are projected to range from 2.9 percent compound annual growth to 3.3 percent, with RPKs between 19.5 trillion and 21.9 trillion by 2050.
Yet growth will be uneven across different regions of the world. Under the mid-range growth model, Asia-Pacific and Africa will be the world's fastest-growing regions, with compound annual growth rates of 3.8 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively. Europe and North America, meanwhile, will grow at a rate between 2 and 3 percent.
"The outlook for air travel is positive. People want to travel and, under all our modeled scenarios, the demand to fly is expected to more than double by mid-century," said IATA's Director General, Willie Walsh. "That is good news for global economic and social development because aviation growth will catalyze opportunities, including jobs, around the world.
"Our Long-Term Demand report gives governments, industry, and energy suppliers a robust basis for long‑term planning," continued Walsh. "It underscores the need for policy frameworks to support key success enablers such as efficient infrastructure development, market access facilitation, regulatory harmonization, and an effective clean energy transition."
As air travel demand grows, investing in aviation infrastructure and regulations in developing nations will support the fastest-growing markets, like intra-Africa, Asia-Pacific-Middle East and intra-Asia-Pacific routes.
Two long-term trends the new report focuses on include the very real gap between where the industry was pre-pandemic and where it is now. "Unlike previous crises, the unprecedented collapse in RPK has created a persistent gap that is not expected to converge back to the pre-pandemic GDP-aligned trend by 2050, even under the high‑growth scenario," says IATA.
Compound annual growth rates for demand have slowed from the 1970s to the early 2000s. That trend continues post-pandemic, indicating maturity rather than weakening demand, as traveler numbers continue to rise significantly.
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