US Travel Releases Latest Recovery Forecast for Travel Spending

Image: Travelers passing through the airport. (photo via ArtMassa/iStock/Getty Images Plus)
Image: Travelers passing through the airport. (photo via ArtMassa/iStock/Getty Images Plus)
Patrick Clarke
by Patrick Clarke
Last updated: 2:56 PM ET, Mon November 15, 2021

The U.S. Travel Association released its biannual recovery forecast for domestic and international travel spending on Monday, revealing the latest projections for a delayed recovery for the international inbound and business travel segments but encouraging trends for domestic leisure travel amid the COVID-19 pandemic and on the heels of the U.S. reopening to international travel on November 8.

Based on analysis from Tourism Economics, the forecast shows that domestic leisure travel will continue to drive the U.S. travel industry's recovery in the months to come, having already reached near pre-pandemic levels. Domestic leisure travel is projected to surpass pre-pandemic levels as early as 2022. However, business travel and international inbound travel face a longer recovery, the forecast finds.

Domestic business travel spending is expected to reach just 76 percent of 2019 levels in 2022 while the segment is not expected to fully recover until as far out as 2024. Meanwhile, international inbound travel spending is forecasted to reach only 72 percent of 2019 levels in 2022 and is not expected to fully recover until 2024 or 2025.

"While we see much reason for optimism on the horizon, our forecast reveals that travel's recovery is uneven with much work ahead to ensure all segments reach pre-pandemic levels," U.S. Travel Association President and CEO Roger Dow said in a statement. "We believe that the U.S. can implement smart, effective policies that bring back international visitors more quickly and spur business and professional travel to accelerate an economic and jobs rebound."

"Stabilizing policies can help ensure a more even recovery as we aim to restore the U.S. as the top destination in the world for global travelers," Dow added.

The group outlined several policies that it feels can accelerate the travel industry's recovery, including fully reopening and resuming visitor visa processing at U.S embassies and consulates; ensuring that Customs and Border Protection and Transportation Security Administration officers are adequately resourced; passing the Restoring Brand USA Act to provide emergency relief funding to the country's destination marketing organization Brand USA and enacting temporary tax credits to restore demand for in-person professional meetings and events.

Click here to view U.S. Travel's latest spending forecast table.


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Patrick Clarke

Patrick Clarke

Senior Editor

A Maryland native and wanderer who has lived across the U.S. from North Carolina to SoCal, Patrick Clarke graduated from Towson University with a B.S. in journalism. He previously worked for Bleacher

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