AccuWeather is anticipating a near- to below-historical-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2026, based on its latest forecast.
However, travelers are advised to be prepared as the analysis calls for three to five direct U.S. impacts this year.
Potential Super El Niño
There is currently a 15 percent chance of a super El Niño forming by the end of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 to November 30), according to experts at AccuWeather. It would be just the third in the past 30 years and impact the outlook for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season.
"While El Niño may lower the total storm count, it will not shut down the Atlantic hurricane season. El Niño is the main reason we expect near-average to below-average activity, but it is not a free pass for the U.S. coast," warns AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
"This is the kind of year when people hear 'fewer storms' and assume the risk is lower. That would be a dangerous mistake," added DaSilva. "Very warm waters in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf can still fuel rapid intensification, even with El Niño in the picture."
AccuWeather is projecting between 11 and 16 named storms, which is on par with last year (14) and the 30-year historical average (14). Officials expect anywhere from four to seven hurricanes, including two to four major hurricanes (Category 3+).
Depiction of a powerful hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. (Photo Credit: Adobe Stock/Miodrag (photo generated using AI))
"Preseason and early-season storms are both possible this year due to warm waters across the western portion of the Atlantic basin and the Gulf," says DaSilva. "If El Niño strengthens heading into the peak of the season, the odds improve that the final months of the season will be less active."
"An El Niño pattern typically increases disruptive wind shear across the Atlantic basin, making it harder for some storms to organize," DaSilva concluded.
Potential Higher Risk Areas
Areas with higher-than-historical-average risk of significant tropical impacts in 2026 include the central and eastern Gulf Coast, the Carolinas and parts of the Virginia coastline, according to AccuWeather.
"It's very important that everybody from South Texas all the way to Maine prepares equally for each and every hurricane season, regardless of the forecast," added DaSilva. "Even if it's expected to be a slightly below-average hurricane season, we can still see major hits across the United States."
Experts are stressing preparedness ahead of the Atlantic hurricane season and one of the ways travelers can protect themselves and their trip investment is by purchasing travel insurance. They can secure a comprehensive policy for just a small percentage of their total trip cost and have peace of mind heading into the summer.
It's not advised to wait until the last minute to purchase insurance, as many policies won't kick in if a storm has already been named.
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