The U.S. Travel Association (U.S. Travel) published its biannual forecast, offering a glimpse into the trajectory of inbound international and domestic travel in the United States through the year 2026.
The organization’s predictions indicate that the future demand growth rates for U.S. domestic leisure travel finally normalizing, following months of elevated consumer demand.
“Robust domestic leisure travel demand has been the driving force in the overall industry’s post-pandemic comeback,” U.S. Travel Association President and CEO Geoff Freeman said in a statement. “Though the surge we experienced in the last year is starting to moderate, we expect this segment to remain resilient in coming quarters.”
Domestic Leisure Travel
U.S. Travel projects that domestic leisure travel will continue to be strong, but growth rates in demand will fall back to normal levels (roughly two percent) in 2023 and 2024. Traveler volume, on the other hand, is actually expected to increase at a faster rate year-over-year (YOY) than inflation-adjusted spending next year and beyond.
Domestic Business Travel
In terms of domestic business travel, which hasn’t enjoyed the same powerful post-pandemic comeback as the leisure segment, both volume and spending numbers are expected to increase. It’s presaged that its progress will occur more slowly, however, due to economic conditions. It’s believed that business travel will continue its recovery, with both volume and spending seeing double-digit growth in 2023, but it’s presaged that the segment’s growth in inflation-adjusted spending will be slower than volume next year and beyond. Moreover, volume isn’t expected to fully bounce back to 2019’s pre-pandemic levels until 2025, while inflation-adjusted spending is not predicted to do so within the scope of the forecast.
Inbound International Travel
The forecast for inbound foreign travel to the U.S. was upgraded from previous editions, thanks to hearty demand from the Canadian market, and to reflect raised expectations for demand from key overseas markets, including Brazil.
Inbound visitor volumes are projected to rise by 31 percent in 2023 and 18 percent in 2024, while inflation-adjusted spending is projected to increase 34 percent in 2023 and 19 percent in 2024. Traveler volumes in this sector are estimated to recover from the effects of the pandemic by 2025, but inflation-adjusted spending won’t be able to say the same until 2026.
Hospitality and leisure sector jobs on the rebound. (photo via metamorworks/iStock/Getty Images Plus)
“Travel is essential to growing the U.S. economy and workforce, so the federal government must enact policies to ensure our industry is able to meet demand in coming years,” remarked Freeman.
In line with that assumption, U.S. Travel is focusing on four key areas of federal policy in its efforts to accelerate growth across travel sectors. It is asking the government to address the following:
- Improve the overall air travel experience through theFederal Aviation Administration reauthorization bill
- Lower U.S. visitor visa interview wait times, which currently exceed an average of 500 days in top visa-requiring inbound markets
- Reduce Customs wait times at U.S. airports and other ports of entry experiencing excessive delays
- Increase federal prioritization and focus on travel industry growth, as other countries have done
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