In an otherwise strong summer for air travel, passenger demand slipped in August 2026, new data shows.
According to monthly data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), air travel demand dipped 0.8% year-over-year for the last month of the summer travel season.
The small downtick was most likely caused by renewed conflicts in the Middle East amid the Iran war.
Excluding carriers in the Middle East, August’s travel demand grew by 0.6% year-over-year. However, that figure is still only half the pace of demand growth seen in July 2026.
The “recovery trajectory for carriers in the Middle East was interrupted,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s senior vice president sustainability, and chief economist. “The region’s carriers reported that demand was 14.6% lower year-on-year, reversing an improving trend.”
The industry had been seeing strong demand despite higher oil costs and more expensive airfares. Airlines were growing their number of seats for August, most likely planning for the strong demand trend to continue through that month as well.
Global capacity increased in August by 0.3% compared to 2025, but overall load factor was just 85.1%, which is a 0.9% dip year-over-year.
IATA says that the fall season could see further drops in demand due to similar factors as those in August.
“The coming months will reveal whether travelers, whose purchasing power has been reduced by higher energy prices, are adjusting their travel budgets, and might be discouraged from traveling due to the prevailing geopolitical instability,” Owens Thomsen said.
However there is one sign of “cautious optimism,” according to Owens Thomsen: forward schedules for October are currently showing 2.0% growth in available seats.
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