Ongoing disruptions like soaring jet fuel costs amid the crisis in the Middle East likely won't be enough to slow aviation industry growth in the coming decades.
Boeing released its 2026 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) ahead of the UK's Farnborough International Airshow this week, revealing the global commercial airplane fleet is projected to grow nearly 80% by 2045.
That growth will be fueled by surging demand for air travel. According to Boeing, passenger traffic is expected to grow 4% annually, which means global air traffic will double between 2026 and 2045.
The aircraft manufacturer is anticipating nearly 44,000 new deliveries in the next 20 years. Half of those aircraft will replace older airplanes with more fuel‑efficient models.
Established regions—including North America, Eurasia, Oceania and Northeast Asia—will account for about 45% of new deliveries, while transitioning and emerging markets such as China, the Middle East, Latin America, South and Southeast Asia, and Africa will account for the remaining 55% of new deliveries, according to the report.
Boeing expects low‑cost carrier fleets to grow nearly 4% annually, compared to nearly 3% growth for network carriers.
Replacement demand is also on the rise worldwide, with the expectation that less than 10% of previous‑generation airplanes are expected to remain in the global fleet by 2045.
"Airlines are adapting quickly to manage near-term industry constraints while demand for air travel remains resilient," Boeing's senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing, Brad McMullen, said in a statement.
"That demand is driving the need to grow and modernize the global fleet, underscoring the importance of new, fuel-efficient airplanes that will play an increasingly vital role in connecting people and economies around the world," he added.
Boeing also forecasts a $4.9 trillion support and services market and demand for more than 2.4 million new commercial aviation professionals over the next 20 years.
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