How Quickly Can The Cruise Industry Rebound?

The cruise industry has been buffeted by the pandemic this year, rising to meet several distinct challenges as it begins to restart its sailings out of the United States.

The first challenge was getting test sailings approved by the CDC. Ten cruise ships across four major cruise lines have sailed or are currently sailing on test cruises from American ports. The test cruises are at a reduced capacity and differ in safety protocols by cruise line, but the majority of them require all crew to be vaccinated, as well as guests old enough to receive the vaccine. Despite the sometimes confusing requirements, Royal Caribbean's test cruises had an incredible 250,000 individuals volunteer, citing a strong desire to get back to cruising.

So far, only one cruise line sailing with passengers in the Caribbean has had anyone test positive for COVID-19. Celebrity Cruises' Celebrity Millennium had two passengers test positive for the virus, and they were asymptomatic. They were quickly isolated and taken to St. Maarten until they tested negative. The Millennium had tested every crewmember and guest prior to sailing and throughout; every person onboard was vaccinated.

The cruise industry, much like in every other industry in America, has been politicized in relation to the vaccine requirements issued by the CDC, creating problems for the industry. Texas and Florida both passed laws forbidding businesses from requiring customers to show proof of vaccination, including cruise lines. The CDC requires that all test guests must be either vaccinated or show proof that they are not at high-risk for complications or death due to the virus. However, cruises are the safest when everyone is vaccinated.

This poses problems for Carnival Cruise Line, Norwegian Cruise Line, Celebrity Cruises and others that had been planning on operating with fully vaccinated crew and guests out of these states' ports.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis mentioned back in May that a cruise line could be fined $5,000 per passenger should they require proof of vaccination. Florida has sued the CDC because of its Conditional Sail Order (CSO) and vaccination requirements. Just last week, a federal judge ruled in favor of the state of Florida, explaining that the CDC overstepped its authority by issuing the CSO, which includes regulations on cruise travel, with the mandate for test cruises and mostly vaccinated passengers.

The CDC has until July 2 to create guidelines for cruises, which means that in a perfect world, cruises could once again begin operating out of Florida ports as early as July.

While the threat of ongoing legal battles has seemingly disappeared, vaccination rates could become another impediment. There's no doubt that the cruise industry will (eventually) recover, so long as Americans reach herd immunity, but the when and the how of it is still to be determined.

According to a GlobalData poll, 21 percent of North American respondents weren't planning on taking a COVID-19 vaccination. That's millions of people who, should the vaccine requirement still be in effect for some cruise lines (who could mandate it themselves, without the CDC's mandate) won't be able to sail anytime soon.

The topic of vaccines and vaccine requirements has also been impacting travel advisors.

Scott Lara, an experienced travel advisor from TheCruiseGenius.com, mentioned that while he was getting a lot of calls from clients who are interested in cruising, particularly in the Caribbean and Alaska, the biggest question they have is if vaccinations are required.

Jeremy Hall, Operations, Sales and Marketing for Cruise Vacations International believes Americans especially hold the key to the industry's recovery: "The cruise industry is going to bounce back as soon as U.S. citizens are back on board again. In fact, Celebrity Millennium just departed with the first U.S. passengers... and I think once those passengers start posting their pics and vids on social media, we're going to see a huge boom in bookings and we are ready for it!"

Laziza Lambert, CLIA's Director of Strategic Communications and Public Affairs, said: "Although enthusiasm from cruisers remains strong, we recognize that it may take some time before the public is comfortable with many aspects of traveling post-pandemic. Rebuilding public trust in cruise is going to be a priority for us as we look to the future, and we hope to be able to do so by demonstrating the effectiveness of the measures in place."

Internationally, cruises have been operating with strict protocols and at a reduced capacity throughout the pandemic without much problem, but without American travelers. Regional recoveries could occur sooner than the entire industry's recovery; the Mediterranean, for example, has had cruises throughout the pandemic and is opening up once again for American travelers this summer as European countries do the same.

Despite all of these recent issues, the future of cruise travel seems bright.

Earlier in the year, several of the most expensive world cruises sold out in record time. Silversea's South Side Story 2023 world cruise sold out in one day; Oceania's Around the World in 180 Days world cruise for 2023 also sold out within a day. The demand continues to grow, and back in March, Oceania recorded its best booking day in its 18-year history.

So when exactly will the rebound occur?

Brad Striegel, Cruise Planners Franchise Owner and Travel Advisor said: "I think cruising will fully rebound when three primary events occur: First, the CDC removes the conditional sailing order. Second, cruisers accept their risk to COVID-19 infection, vaccinated or not, as they would for other common respiratory diseases, like the flu...Third, some of the public health protocols, like vaccine requirements, masks and social distancing, are eliminated on all cruises."

People are making plans for the future, for 2022 and beyond. The demand is there, as Stewart Chiron mentioned in a cruise-related TravelPulse Podcast episode; there just needs to be concrete plans for travelers to trust cruising again: "Just tell us when we can go; give us specific, real, definitive ships and sailing dates."

Chiron went on to say he believes it'll be into 2022 before the cruise industry full rebounds.

When do you think it will?

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